The Vision, Problem, and Solution
The Vision
We aim to create a political system in which political leaders see the path to political success through the center and there is an energized centrist movement of voters, practitioners, and activists. In this future, the media, pundits and practitioners will understand that polarization is being driven by choices that elites make, and these choices can be changed to produce a more pragmatic political system.
The Problem
The Welcome Democracy Institute is focused on addressing the core problem threatening our democracy: a highly polarized political ecosystem is distorting the will of the people in service of ideological extremists, profit-seeking players and special interests.
The status quo is broken, which we can see in a number of key measures. In the past two decades, the number of cloture votes to break a filibuster increased from 12 in 2003 to 164 in 2023. Legislative productivity is hitting new lows, with just twenty-seven bills passing last year (a record low). The legislative agenda is increasingly set by extremists like Marjorie Taylor Greene and the Freedom Caucus on the right and Ilhan Omar and the Squad on the left. At the same time, the number of competitive districts has declined from 164 in 1997 to just 82 in 2023.
There are greenshoots of hope. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Ukraine aid package show that pockets of productivity exist, but these moments are often crafted by retiring members, and our institutions are becoming more extreme by attrition. For example, Democratic electoral mavericks like Jared Golden, Mary Peltola and Mary Gluesenkamp Perez are winning the middle in traditionally red districts, but many maverick candidates find themselves unsupported by increasingly extreme institutions.
The Solution
There is no silver bullet to move our political system to the center. However, Welcome believes that many of the tactics that moved the political system to the extremes can be used to pull the system back to the center. We will use earned media to shift elite perspectives on polarization, use research and polling to raise awareness of voters, and create a tight-knit network of aligned leaders who share learnings, tactics and support each other. These tactics will be deployed through four core work areas from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2026.
Address the Root Cause: The Depolarizers
Polarization is driven by elites, not voters. Polarization is an ideological project of highly-engaged, highly-educated and highly-ideological political professionals. We need to bring professionals into politics who want to solve problems, not increase the political temperature. We will change the dominant consensus of how polarization is understood and we will organize aligned people who are frustrated by our current system but are disorganized, isolated and alone.
The Depolarizers is our campaign to expose the polarization process to elite opinion-makers. We will create a shared sense among practitioners, academics and funders that polarization is a force driven in part by their choices and empower leaders who are fighting to reduce polarization. The campaign includes the following goals and deliverables:
Annual convening with academics, practitioners and philanthropy. These convenings will bring together people working to advance centrist approaches to build a sense of community and shared mission among many who currently feel isolated in their work. Past convenings have been praised by participants as one of the few places where they can meet with people working to advance centrist causes.
The Depolarizers podcast. We are launching a podcast, The Depolarizers, to expand the audience for our ideas and provide a single place where those fighting polarization can share and debate ideas. The podcast will include leading voices like Matt Yglesias, Sam Rosenfield, Andy Hall, Patrick Ruffini and Olivia Julianna. Each podcast will be accompanied by a Substack newsletter post explaining the research informing the podcast. Over the next three years, we plan to have 5 seasons, 1 in 2024, and 2 each in 2025 and 2026.
The Depolarizers book. We will publish a Depolarizers book project that will weave together our Substack posts and additional original material making the case that depolarization was created by elites and elites can end it as well. The book will synthesize academic research, explore the political history and posit actions for impact.
Earned media. As part of the podcast and book, we will engage in a media tour including publications like New York Times, podcasts like Pod Save America and Substacks like Slow Boring. The tour will raise media attention and welcome voters who feel excluded by the current polarized system.
Foment Competition: Congressional Competitiveness Index
The average House member and Senator is more worried about a threat from their ideological extreme than they are about pressure from the center. Because of the decline of competitive districts, most politicians won office by winning a primary against other members of their party, not a general election against a member of the opposite party. After winning a single primary early in their career they then hold a “safe” seat for life. Parties must contest more districts so that politicians feel pressure to move to the center and to give voters choices they currently lack.
Our quarterly Congressional Competitiveness Index report (formerly called “Conceding Democracy”) raises awareness of the fact that parties frequently fail to contest winnable districts. This deprives voters of choice and encourages extremism. Research suggests that the presence of a general election challenger could help moderate extremist members. Our Congressional Competitiveness Index reports are unique resources for the media, practitioners and potential candidates.
Reports. Over the next three years, we will produce a report each quarter focused on House and Senate elections measuring how intensely parties are contesting each district and state based on fundraising and presence of candidates. These reports will be coupled with blog posts exploring theses about how parties are “conceding democracy.”
Marketing. We will achieve geographically targeted earned media coverage of our Congressional Competitiveness Index reports in the places most impacted by a lack of competition. We will present the results of the Congressional Competitiveness Index on panels to circulate among target audiences to raise awareness of this gap in our electoral system.
Cross-post on Substacks. We will work to place our work on the Substack platforms of allies to broaden the audience, and demonstrate a community dedicated to encouraging competition.
Voter Research & Engagement: Win the Middle
Parties currently focus more on “mobilizing” their base, rather than winning independent and moderate voters. This leads to increasingly extreme positions, alienating independent and moderate voters who are the plurality of the electorate. We will show that there are millions of voters in the middle up for grabs if parties contest democracy. We will show that voters are not as polarized as many political actors assume and that they support more consensus-driven approaches to law-making.
To address extremism, we must show leaders that the path forward is in the center, that voters in the center are the majority that should be represented. Our research agenda will identify geographics where registration would increase competition, conduct research to understand low-engagement voters, and use the learnings to pull these voters into the electorate.
Create a Culture of Leadership: Welcome Leadership Project
While lawmakers on the far-left and right can make use of a broad network of connected interest groups and staunch ideologues, centrists find themselves lonely, and bucking their party to win re-election, which brings a flurry of grassroots condemnation, but raises little centrist praise publicly. We are bringing together moderate leaders and creating a tight-knit centrist community to support each other, address common challenges, govern effectively, share learnings from their elections and governing.
Ultimately, to end polarization and extremism we need brave moderate leaders and a network of aligned organizations to support them.
Annual convening of elected and civic leaders who bring moderate appeal to a progressive coalition. We will have two retreats each year, one near June and one near December as opportunities to identify and support depolarizing public leaders.
Create a network of moderates. Moderates in office often struggle to build a network of community, because there are fewer opportunities to engage with their base and unlike progressive members who represent safe seats, they must continually campaign and fundraise to remain in office and cannot rely on ideological show votes to juice their election.